Peak Umrah Season Ahead: Why Some Madinah Hotel Bookings Get Cancelled — and How to Stay Protected

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Peak Umrah Season Ahead: Why Some Madinah Hotel Bookings Get Cancelled — and How to Stay Protected

A data-driven look at how rising Umrah pilgrim numbers could push Madinah hotels beyond capacity — and what every pilgrim should do before booking.

As Umrah travel picks up, Madinah’s hotels are already reporting a 74.7% occupancy rate — months before Ramadan.
(Reference: Saudi Press Agency report, Oct 3, 2025 — “Madinah Leads Saudi Cities in Hospitality Occupancy, Reaches 74.7% ” SPA link )

With more than 3.8 million pilgrims performing Umrah since Dhul-Hijjah, demand for rooms near Masjid an-Nabawi is climbing fast, averaging 38,000–43,000 pilgrims daily.

Infographic source: Ministry of Hajj & Umrah, @MoHU_En , Oct 3

At that level of demand, hotels near the Haram are already close to full. But as numbers rise through Rabiʿ al-Thani, Jumada and especially Ramadan, occupancy could reach — or exceed — full capacity.

In this article, we explore why this happens, how last-minute cancellations occur and what pilgrims and travel agents can do to stay protected under the Nusuk Masar system.

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📈 The Reality Behind the Numbers

According to the SPA report, Madinah recorded the highest hospitality occupancy rate in Saudi Arabia — 74.7% during the first half of 2025.

“The city’s licensed hospitality sector saw substantial growth, with total licensed facilities reaching 538 (including 69 new licenses) and total hotel rooms 64,569 (including 6,628 newly added rooms).” — SPA

Even with these new additions, it also signals that Madinah’s hotel market is nearing its physical limit — especially as the number of Umrah pilgrims continues to rise each month.

📈 Demand Will Surge Ahead of Ramadan

Based on Ministry of Hajj & Umrah data, daily Umrah participation is expected to grow from ~40,000 pilgrims/day in Rabiʿ al-Awwal to as many as 200,000/day during Ramadan.

When occupancy approaches full capacity:

• 💰 Prices rise sharply
• 🚫 Rooms near the Haram become scarce
• ⚠️ And in rare but serious cases, some bookings are cancelled or reassigned to other guests

📈 The Rising Curve of Pilgrim Numbers

Based on Ministry of Hajj and Umrah data and recent travel trends, here’s a conservative projection of daily Umrah pilgrim averages leading up to Ramadan — and the likely impact on Madinah hotel occupancy:

Of course, occupancy can’t literally exceed 100%, but these ratios show how demand will outstrip available rooms, especially around the central Haram zone.

As Ramadan approaches, pilgrims will increasingly need to look for hotels with free Haram shuttles or stay in outer Madinah districts where availability remains more flexible.

🧮 Why Capacity Peaks in Rajab

Let’s translate those growth percentages into real hotel occupancy numbers.

Assumptions:

• Average stay duration: 10 nights total per pilgrim
  → 4 nights in Madinah (40%)
  → 6 nights in Makkah (60%)
• Each month = roughly 30 days

This allows us to estimate how many pilgrims are present in Madinah or Makkah at any given time — not just how many arrive during the month.

Example: Rabiʿ al-Thani

If 45,000 pilgrims perform Umrah daily →
Total monthly pilgrims = 45,000 × 30 = 1.35 million

Applying the 40:60 split:

• 540,000 pilgrims stay in Madinah (40%)
• 810,000 stay in Makkah (60%)

To find how many are in the city each day, we divide by the number of “stay cycles” per month:

• Madinah: 540,000 ÷ (30 ÷ 4) = ≈72,000 pilgrims present daily
• Makkah: 810,000 ÷ (30 ÷ 6) = ≈162,000 pilgrims present daily

Now, let’s compare that with Madinah’s actual hotel capacity:

🏨 Total rooms: 64,569
👥 Average 3 guests per room: ≈ 193,700-person capacity

✅ In Rabiʿ al-Thani, with around 72,000 pilgrims staying daily, Madinah operates comfortably below capacity.
🚨 By Rajab, however, daily pilgrims in Madinah reach ~192,000, effectively filling every available room.

From Shaʿban onward, the number of pilgrims exceeds total bed capacity — explaining why hotels begin to overbook or reassign rooms to higher-paying contracts.

Even with 6,628 new rooms added in 2025, the city’s total supply (64,569 rooms) can’t keep pace with the accelerating rise in Umrah arrivals — which is precisely why the Ministry of Hajj & Umrah strengthened the Nusuk Masar  system to ensure every booking is traceable and protected.

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⚠️ Why Do Some Hotel Bookings Get Cancelled?

During peak months, hotels often:

• Overbook intentionally, expecting cancellations but underestimating actual arrivals.
• Prioritize higher-paying contracts, cancelling earlier low-rate bookings made months earlier.
• Face technical mismatches between online agents and hotel data, especially when room availability updates lag across multiple platforms.

This is why even verified travellers sometimes arrive in Madinah to find their rooms reallocated. While individual (DIY) pilgrims may be easier to re-accommodate, such issues can be extremely difficult for travel groups — sometimes leaving dozens of pilgrims stranded or delayed from checking in.

🛡️ How the Nusuk Masar System Protects You

To address this, the Ministry of Hajj & Umrah launched the Nusuk Masar platform — the official contracting gateway between travel agents and licensed hospitality providers.

✅ All Umrah travel agencies must secure hotels through Masar .
✅ Only approved hotels appear in packages linked to Umrah visas.

This ensures every booking corresponds to an officially registered facility — protecting both agencies and Guests of Allah.

In short, if your booking is secured through a registered Masar provider, your accommodation is officially recognized and traceable by the Ministry.

For DIY pilgrims, the same principle applies:
If you book independently, choose hotels listed on or verifiable via Nusuk Masar — so your reservation can be supported or traced if disputes arise.

Use trusted platforms such as Trip.com or HalalBooking for secure payments and comparisons.
(Note: As an affiliate partner of trusted platforms, I recommend them for general travel bookings. However, during peak Umrah periods — especially in Ramadan — pilgrims may find it safer to confirm directly through Nusuk-listed providers.)

💡 What DIY Pilgrims Should Do

Independent (DIY) travellers are often more flexible — but during high-demand periods like Ramadan, they should also be cautious.:

🧭 Quick Planning Tips for Pilgrims

• Book through official channels. Whenever possible, use hotels or providers listed on Nusuk Masar, especially for stays in Madinah and Makkah. .
• Book at least 60–90 days before Ramadan.
• Choose hotels offering Haram shuttle services if staying farther out.
• Keep digital and printed copies of booking confirmations.
• Use trusted platforms such as Trip.com or HalalBooking for secure payments and comparisons.
• Save the Ministry hotline numbers, posted on their official Twitter account .

“We value your inquiries and suggestions and we are here to serve you 24/7.” — Ministry of Hajj & Umrah (@MoHU_En)

This land is calling

🕌 The Bigger Picture

As Umrah attendance rises — from 3.8 million after Hajj to a projected 20+ million by Ramadan — hotel pressure in Madinah will intensify.

This growth beautifully reflects renewed global enthusiasm for visiting the Two Holy Mosques.
But it also highlights the need for careful planning, transparent systems and informed pilgrims.

By booking early, choosing verified hotels and understanding how Nusuk Masar protects your reservation, you can focus fully on your worship — not on check-in worries.

🕋 In Summary

• 🏨 Madinah hotel capacity: 64,569 rooms (~193,000 beds)
• 📈 Full occupancy likely by Rajab, long before Ramadan
• ⚠️ Overbooking risk increases for large groups
• 🛡️ Use official platforms like Nusuk Masar to ensure your booking is protected and your stay recognized by the Ministry.

🕊️ Final Thought

Madinah’s 74.7% occupancy rate may sound comfortable now — but it’s only the calm before the rush.
With pilgrim arrivals expected to triple by Ramadan, early planning and verified bookings are essential.

As a Guest of Allah, safeguard your journey by booking smart, confirming early and relying on trusted, officially recognized providers.

🤝 Affiliate Disclosure

Some of the links in this article are affiliate links, meaning I may earn a small commission if you make a booking through them — at no additional cost to you.
This small contribution helps me maintain this site, continue sharing Umrah and Hajj resources and keep information updated for future pilgrims.
Rest assured, all recommendations are based on verified platforms and genuine usefulness for travellers visiting the Two Holy Mosques.